British politics could make a notable shift towards extremist nationalism when Ukip announces its new leader at its annual conference in Torquay on Friday, amid speculation the winner could be an anti-Islam activist with close links to the far right.
Insiders say the party faces splits or even disintegration if this happens, two and a half years after it was the UK’s third-biggest party by vote share at the 2015 general election.
The race is extremely close, with senior figures saying six of the seven candidates could feasibly succeed Paul Nuttall, whose disastrous six-month stint ended after Ukip plummeted from almost 4m votes to fewer than 600,000 in June’s election.
Several insider say they fear such a tight contest could favour the limited but fervent support base of Anne Marie Waters, whose pitch is largely based on her extreme views on Islam, a faith she has described as “evil”.
Waters, a co-founder of the UK branch of the anti-Islam group Pegida, is open about her ambition to move the party to a form of cultural nationalism based around religious intolerance.
She has close links to the far right and has received help in her campaign from Jack Buckby, formerly a prominent member of the British National party, who then spent time in the openly racist group Liberty GB.
If Waters wins she will probably oversee a fracturing of the party, with almost all its MEPs saying they would resign the whip if that happens.
Ukip’s most prominent figure, Nigel Farage, has criticised Waters and reportedly plans to launch a rival party if she triumphs.
Nonetheless, she is viewed as a possible victor. “The problem is the rest of the field,” said a senior Ukip member, speaking anonymously. “There’s not one obvious alternative for people to rally round. That’s why I’m worried.”
Even without a Waters win, the party could move noticeably to the right, a direction indicated by the decision to invite a speaker from Germany’s nationalist member Alternative für Deutschland to address the conference.
Elsewhere are those who are more mainstream, at least in the context of Ukip. Jane Collins, an MEP who styles herself as a unifier, is seen as another possible winner, as is Henry Bolton, a previously little-known ex-soldier viewed by some as having gathered momentum.
Somewhere in the middle is John Rees-Evans, a sometimes unlikely figure who seeks to bypass parliament with a “direct democracy” based on electronic voting booths. Finally – and the only candidate among the seven seen as having no chance – is Aidan Powlesland, best known for suggesting Brexit could be financed by mining the asteroid belt.
Whoever wins will be taking over an unpaid post in a much-diminished party, becoming the fourth leader in just over a year of a group still searching for a new focus after the vote for Brexit.
Amid the confusion, many in the party are preparing themselves for the possibility of a Waters victory. “I’m not saying she’ll definitely win,” said the senior member. “But in a six-horse race she’s definitely got more than a one-in-six chance. It could easily happen.”
